The Formula for Binomial Probability

Oct 13, 2025 by miodeya.com 136 views

Understanding the Probability of Sleepwalkers: A Mathematical Approach

Probability is a fundamental concept in mathematics that deals with the likelihood of an event occurring. In this article, we will explore the probability of getting exactly 4 sleepwalkers among 5, and then find the probability of getting 4 or more sleepwalkers. We will use the concept of binomial probability to solve these problems.

What is Binomial Probability?

Binomial probability is a type of probability that deals with the number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials, where each trial has only two possible outcomes: success or failure. In this case, we are interested in the probability of getting exactly 4 sleepwalkers among 5, which can be considered as a binomial distribution.

The Formula for Binomial Probability

The formula for binomial probability is given by:

P(X = k) = (nCk) * (p^k) * (q^(n-k))

where:

P(X = k) is the probability of getting exactly k successes
n is the number of trials
k is the number of successes
nCk is the number of combinations of n items taken k at a time
p is the probability of success
q is the probability of failure

Calculating the Probability of Exactly 4 Sleepwalkers

Let's assume that the probability of a person sleepwalking is 0.2 (or 20%). We want to find the probability of getting exactly 4 sleepwalkers among 5. Using the formula for binomial probability, we get:

P(X = 4) = (5C4) * (0.2^4) * (0.8^1) = 5 * 0.0016 * 0.8 = 0.0064

However, we are asked to type an integer or a decimal, and not round. Therefore, the answer is:

0.0064

Calculating the Probability of 4 or More Sleepwalkers

To find the probability of getting 4 or more sleepwalkers, we need to find the probability of getting 4, 5, or more sleepwalkers. We can do this by summing up the probabilities of getting 4, 5, or more sleepwalkers.

P(X ≥ 4) = P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) + P(X ≥ 6)

Using the formula for binomial probability, we get:

P(X = 4) = 0.0064 (as calculated earlier) P(X = 5) = (5C5) * (0.2^5) * (0.8^0) = 1 * 0.00032 * 1 = 0.00032 P(X ≥ 6) = 1 - P(X ≤ 5) = 1 - (P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)) = 1 - (0.8^5 + 5 * 0.8^4 * 0.2 + 10 * 0.8^3 * 0.2^2 + 10 * 0.8^2 * 0.2^3 + 5 * 0.8 * 0.2^4 + 0.00032) = 1 - (0.32768 + 0.4096 + 0.4096 + 0.2048 + 0.1024 + 0.00032) = 1 - 1.35344 = 0.64656

Therefore, the probability of getting 4 or more sleepwalkers is:

0.64656

In this article, we have explored the probability of getting exactly 4 sleepwalkers among 5, and then found the probability of getting 4 or more sleepwalkers. We used the concept of binomial probability to solve these problems. The probability of getting exactly 4 sleepwalkers is 0.0064, and the probability of getting 4 or more sleepwalkers is 0.64656.