Probability of Owning a Bird

Oct 13, 2025 by miodeya.com 112 views

Introduction

In a survey conducted at a pet store, 150 customers were asked if they owned birds or fish. The survey data are shown in the relative frequency table below. In this article, we will analyze the survey data using mathematical concepts and provide insights into the behavior of the customers.

Survey Data

	Own a bird	Do not own a bird	Total
Own a fish	30	20	50
Do not own a fish	40	60	100
Total	70	80	150

Relative Frequency Table

	Own a bird	Do not own a bird	Total
Own a fish	0.2	0.1333	0.3333
Do not own a fish	0.2667	0.4	0.6667
Total	0.4667	0.5333	1

Mathematical Analysis

Probability of Owning a Bird

The probability of owning a bird can be calculated as the ratio of the number of customers who own a bird to the total number of customers.

Let A be the event of owning a bird and B be the event of owning a fish. Then, the probability of owning a bird is given by:

P(A) = Number of customers who own a bird / Total number of customers = 70 / 150 = 0.4667

Probability of Owning a Fish

Similarly, the probability of owning a fish can be calculated as the ratio of the number of customers who own a fish to the total number of customers.

P(B) = Number of customers who own a fish / Total number of customers = 50 / 150 = 0.3333

Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of owning a bird given that a customer owns a fish can be calculated as the ratio of the number of customers who own a bird and a fish to the total number of customers who own a fish.

P(A|B) = Number of customers who own a bird and a fish / Total number of customers who own a fish = 30 / 50 = 0.6

Similarly, the conditional probability of owning a fish given that a customer owns a bird can be calculated as the ratio of the number of customers who own a fish and a bird to the total number of customers who own a bird.

P(B|A) = Number of customers who own a fish and a bird / Total number of customers who own a bird = 30 / 70 = 0.4286

Independence of Events

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the occurrence of the other event.

Let's check if the events of owning a bird and owning a fish are independent.

P(A ∩ B) = Number of customers who own a bird and a fish / Total number of customers = 30 / 150 = 0.2

P(A) × P(B) = 0.4667 × 0.3333 = 0.1555

Since P(A ∩ B) ≠ P(A) × P(B), the events of owning a bird and owning a fish are not independent.

Bayes' Theorem

Bayes' theorem is a mathematical formula that describes the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event.

Let's use Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of owning a bird given that a customer owns a fish.

P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) = 0.2 / 0.3333 = 0.6

Similarly, the probability of owning a fish given that a customer owns a bird can be calculated as:

P(B|A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A) = 0.2 / 0.4667 = 0.4286

Conclusion

In this article, we analyzed the survey data using mathematical concepts and provided insights into the behavior of the customers. We calculated the probability of owning a bird and a fish, conditional probabilities, and checked for independence of events. We also used Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of owning a bird given that a customer owns a fish and vice versa.

Recommendations

Based on the analysis, we can make the following recommendations:

The pet store can offer discounts or promotions to customers who own both birds and fish to increase sales.
The pet store can also offer separate sections for birds and fish to cater to the needs of customers who own both pets.
The pet store can conduct further surveys to gather more data and analyze the behavior of customers who own both birds and fish.

Limitations

This analysis has some limitations. The survey data is based on a small sample size of 150 customers, and the results may not be generalizable to the larger population. Additionally, the survey data may not capture the nuances of customer behavior, such as the reasons why customers own both birds and fish.

Future Research

Future research can focus on collecting more data and analyzing the behavior of customers who own both birds and fish. This can include surveys, interviews, and observational studies to gather more insights into customer behavior.

References

[1] "Survey Data Analysis" by [Author]
[2] "Probability and Statistics" by [Author]
[3] "Bayes' Theorem" by [Author]

Q: What is the probability of owning a bird?

A: The probability of owning a bird is 0.4667, which means that 46.67% of the customers surveyed own a bird.

Q: What is the probability of owning a fish?

A: The probability of owning a fish is 0.3333, which means that 33.33% of the customers surveyed own a fish.

Q: Are the events of owning a bird and owning a fish independent?

A: No, the events of owning a bird and owning a fish are not independent. The probability of owning a bird and a fish is 0.2, which is not equal to the product of the probabilities of owning a bird and owning a fish (0.4667 × 0.3333 = 0.1555).

Q: What is the probability of owning a bird given that a customer owns a fish?

A: The probability of owning a bird given that a customer owns a fish is 0.6, which means that 60% of the customers who own a fish also own a bird.

Q: What is the probability of owning a fish given that a customer owns a bird?

A: The probability of owning a fish given that a customer owns a bird is 0.4286, which means that 42.86% of the customers who own a bird also own a fish.

Q: Can I use Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of owning a bird given that a customer owns a fish?

A: Yes, you can use Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of owning a bird given that a customer owns a fish. The formula is P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B), where P(A ∩ B) is the probability of owning a bird and a fish, and P(B) is the probability of owning a fish.

Q: Can I use Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of owning a fish given that a customer owns a bird?

A: Yes, you can use Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of owning a fish given that a customer owns a bird. The formula is P(B|A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A), where P(A ∩ B) is the probability of owning a bird and a fish, and P(A) is the probability of owning a bird.

Q: What are the implications of the results?

A: The results have several implications. For example, the pet store can offer discounts or promotions to customers who own both birds and fish to increase sales. The pet store can also offer separate sections for birds and fish to cater to the needs of customers who own both pets.

Q: What are the limitations of the analysis?

A: The analysis has several limitations. The survey data is based on a small sample size of 150 customers, and the results may not be generalizable to the larger population. Additionally, the survey data may not capture the nuances of customer behavior, such as the reasons why customers own both birds and fish.

Q: What are the future research directions?

A: Future research can focus on collecting more data and analyzing the behavior of customers who own both birds and fish. This can include surveys, interviews, and observational studies to gather more insights into customer behavior.

Q: What are the references used in the analysis?

A: The references used in the analysis are [1] "Survey Data Analysis" by [Author], [2] "Probability and Statistics" by [Author], and [3] "Bayes' Theorem" by [Author].