Unpacking The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar Predictions for the 2022 Academy Awards

Oct 31, 2025 by miodeya.com 73 views

Unpacking The Hollywood Reporter’s Oscar Predictions for the 2022 Academy Awards

The annual Academy Awards ceremony is a culmination of a year’s worth of cinematic achievement, industry buzz, and fervent campaigning. For film enthusiasts and industry insiders alike, the period leading up to the Oscars is dominated by intense speculation and analysis. Among the most trusted and influential voices in this prognostication landscape is The Hollywood Reporter. Their team of seasoned critics and awards analysts consistently offers comprehensive and insightful Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022, shaping narratives and influencing perceptions of who might take home the coveted golden statuettes. Understanding their methodology, track record, and specific calls provides an invaluable lens through which to view the 94th Academy Awards.

The Hollywood Reporter’s predictions are not just guesswork; they are the product of deep industry access, careful consideration of precursors (like the Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice Awards), and an astute understanding of the Academy’s voting patterns. Their writers, particularly Scott Feinberg, are known for their ‘Brutally Honest’ column and detailed ‘Feinberg Forecast,’ which tracks shifts in momentum and identifies potential upsets. For the 2022 awards cycle, their insights were particularly crucial in a year marked by a diverse array of films—from sweeping epics to intimate dramas—all vying for the ultimate recognition. This article delves into The Hollywood Reporter’s prognostications for 2022, examining their key calls across major categories and evaluating their impact on the awards season.

The Hollywood Reporter’s Influence on Oscar Season and Their 2022 Approach

The Hollywood Reporter (THR) holds a formidable position in the ecosystem of film awards forecasting. Its influence stems from several factors: its long-standing history as a trade publication deeply embedded in Hollywood, its consistent access to Academy voters and industry strategists, and the perceived neutrality (or at least, informed perspective) of its awards columnists. For the Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022, their team meticulously tracked hundreds of films, performances, and technical achievements, filtering through the noise to identify true contenders. They aren’t merely reporting on what happened; they are actively shaping the narrative of what might happen, often highlighting films and performances that might otherwise fly under the radar or lending crucial weight to frontrunners.

Their approach for the 94th Academy Awards involved a nuanced understanding of a post-pandemic landscape, where theatrical releases were still finding their footing and streaming platforms played an increasingly significant role. THR’s analysts considered not only critical acclaim but also box office performance (where applicable), awards-season momentum from earlier ceremonies, and the effectiveness of campaigning strategies. They paid close attention to the narratives surrounding each film and nominee, recognizing that the Academy often responds to stories of triumph, perseverance, or artistic breakthroughs. For instance, in 2022, the conversation around representation and diverse storytelling was particularly potent, and THR’s predictions often reflected this awareness, considering how certain wins might resonate beyond the immediate awards ceremony. Their extensive articles, podcasts, and video analyses provided a continuous stream of updated predictions, adapting as the season progressed and new information emerged. This iterative process is what makes The Hollywood Reporter’s forecasts so valuable and widely followed, offering both an early look at potential nominees and refined predictions as the voting periods approach.

Best Picture: The Frontrunners and Dark Horses According to THR in 2022

For the Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 in the coveted Best Picture category, the race was initially seen as a showdown between a few heavyweights, but as the season unfolded, The Hollywood Reporter’s analysis highlighted a fascinating ebb and flow of momentum. Early in the race, Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog was widely considered the frontrunner, a critically acclaimed Netflix Western noir that garnered widespread praise for its direction, performances, and atmospheric tension. THR consistently placed it at the top of their list, noting its strong showing in early critics’ awards and its perceived ‘art house’ appeal that often resonates with Academy voters. They lauded its technical brilliance and the nuanced performances from its ensemble cast, particularly Benedict Cumberbatch.

However, as the awards season progressed, The Hollywood Reporter began to pay closer attention to the surge of CODA. This Apple TV+ drama, a heartwarming story about a hearing child of deaf parents, initially started as a potential dark horse. THR’s prognosticators observed its significant wins at the SAG Awards (Outstanding Performance by a Cast) and the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards, often considered a strong predictor for Best Picture. They correctly identified CODA’s emotional resonance and feel-good narrative as a powerful, late-breaking force capable of an upset. Films like Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast, a black-and-white semi-autobiographical coming-of-age story, also maintained a strong presence in THR’s predictions, particularly after its People’s Choice Award win at TIFF. They acknowledged its broad appeal and nostalgic charm, positioning it as a strong contender, albeit one that faced stiff competition from the more modern narratives of The Power of the Dog and CODA.

Other significant films that were consistently in the conversation for Best Picture according to THR included Denis Villeneuve’s Dune, recognized for its technical grandeur and massive scale, though seen as a less likely winner in this category given the Academy’s historical preferences for dramas. Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story was also a strong early pick, celebrated for its vibrant direction and performances, but its box office underperformance and the intense competition likely hampered its ultimate chances, as THR eventually noted. Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up, Reinaldo Marcus Green’s King Richard, Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza, and Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley rounded out THR’s consistent list of nominees, each with their own unique strengths and weaknesses as assessed by their expert panel. The Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 for Best Picture ultimately highlighted a dynamic race, where early frontrunners faced strong challenges from sentimental favorites, leading to one of the more exciting conclusions in recent memory.

Directorial Acumen: Who Stood Out for Best Director in THR’s Forecast?

The Best Director category is often seen as intrinsically linked to Best Picture, yet The Hollywood Reporter’s predictions for the Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 highlighted some interesting nuances in this particular race. Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog was, without a doubt, the most consistent and emphatic frontrunner in THR’s forecasts. Her masterful direction of the complex Western drama, coupled with her history as a celebrated filmmaker (and previous nominee), made her a near-certainty for the win according to their analysis. THR extensively praised her control over the film’s tone, its intricate character development, and her ability to elicit career-best performances from her cast. They noted that a win for Campion would be a historic moment, making her only the third woman to win Best Director.

Beyond Campion, The Hollywood Reporter tracked a fascinating group of directors. Steven Spielberg for West Side Story was an early and consistent presence in their predictions. THR recognized the sheer ambition and flawless execution of his remake, a testament to his legendary status. However, as the season progressed, the momentum shifted slightly away from West Side Story for top prizes, though Spielberg’s nomination remained secure. Kenneth Branagh for Belfast also featured prominently, with THR noting his deeply personal and skillfully crafted narrative. His ability to blend humor, heartbreak, and historical context into a visually distinctive film earned him high marks in their forecast.

A key aspect of The Hollywood Reporter’s 2022 predictions for Best Director involved identifying the international talents who were breaking through. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car was a significant inclusion. THR recognized the critical acclaim for his contemplative Japanese drama, which also earned a Best Picture nomination, signaling a broader appreciation for his intricate storytelling. Similarly, Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza was a strong contender throughout the season, with THR praising his signature directorial style, his ability to capture a specific era, and his unique voice in filmmaking. While Campion remained the dominant force in THR’s predictions, their detailed analysis of the other nominees showcased the diversity of directorial talent recognized by the Academy in 2022, emphasizing both established legends and critically lauded international voices.

The Leading Categories: Best Actor & Actress

The lead acting categories are always among the most hotly contested, and the Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 provided incisive commentary on the ebb and flow of these intense races. Both Best Actor and Best Actress presented compelling narratives, with some performances maintaining frontrunner status and others emerging as dark horses.

Best Actor: A Powerful Performance Takes the Lead

For Best Actor, The Hollywood Reporter consistently positioned Will Smith for his transformative role as Richard Williams in King Richard as the overwhelming favorite. THR meticulously documented Smith’s powerful portrayal of the determined father who coached Venus and Serena Williams, highlighting the performance’s emotional depth and broad appeal. They noted his strong precursor wins (Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice), which cemented his frontrunner status. Smith’s long and respected career, combined with this critically acclaimed performance, created a compelling narrative for his first Oscar win, a factor THR’s prognosticators rarely overlooked. They emphasized how the role allowed him to blend his charismatic screen presence with a dramatic gravitas that resonated deeply with voters.

While Smith was the clear leader, The Hollywood Reporter also provided detailed analysis of his formidable competitors. Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog was consistently ranked second, praised for his complex and chilling performance as Phil Burbank. THR acknowledged the critical darling status of his film and the immense skill required for such a nuanced characterization. Andrew Garfield for tick, tick…BOOM! was another strong contender, with THR applauding his energetic and heartfelt portrayal of Jonathan Larson, showcasing his triple-threat abilities in a film that garnered significant appreciation. Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth was recognized for his commanding, Shakespearean performance, a testament to his enduring talent and legendary status, even if the film itself was niche. Finally, Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos rounded out the list, with THR noting his strong performance in a highly visible film, despite mixed reviews for the movie itself. Throughout the season, THR’s detailed breakdowns provided a clear picture of why Smith was poised for victory, while also celebrating the exceptional talent of his fellow nominees.

Best Actress: A Rollercoaster of Shifting Favorites

The Best Actress race for the Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 was far less predictable than Best Actor, evolving into one of the most exciting and debated categories. Early in the season, several names circulated as potential frontrunners, but The Hollywood Reporter carefully tracked the shifting tides. Kristen Stewart for her portrayal of Princess Diana in Spencer initially generated significant buzz, with THR recognizing her brave and transformative performance. However, as the season wore on, the film’s niche appeal and Stewart’s lack of precursor wins meant her frontrunner status waned, though her nomination remained a certainty.

The race eventually narrowed, with Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye emerging as a strong contender. The Hollywood Reporter meticulously charted her rise, noting her dedicated campaign and her powerful, empathetic performance as the televangelist. Her significant wins at the SAG and Critics’ Choice Awards were crucial, signaling strong industry support. THR highlighted how Chastain’s commitment to the role and the film’s compelling biographical narrative resonated with voters looking for a ‘big’ performance. Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter was a constant presence in THR’s predictions, celebrated for her nuanced and raw portrayal of a complex woman. As an Oscar winner, her performance was seen as strong enough to potentially upset, showcasing the Academy’s appreciation for subtle, character-driven work.

Penélope Cruz for Parallel Mothers was another intriguing candidate, with THR acknowledging her stunning work in Pedro Almodóvar’s film and her international critical acclaim. Her surprise BAFTA nomination underscored her strong artistic merit. Lastly, Nicole Kidman for her turn as Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos was also consistently featured, with THR noting her high-profile role and the significant transformation, despite the film itself receiving mixed reviews. The Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 for Best Actress ultimately reflected a fiercely competitive category, where a strong campaign and a deeply resonant performance helped Chastain ultimately clinch the win in a year that truly showcased the breadth of female talent in leading roles.

Supporting Roles: Crucial Wins and Breakthrough Performances

The supporting categories often spotlight breakthrough talents and seasoned veterans delivering career-defining performances. For the Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022, these categories were particularly interesting, with some clear favorites and a few potential upsets that kept prognosticators on their toes.

Best Supporting Actor: A Historic Victory Predicted

In the Best Supporting Actor race, The Hollywood Reporter very early and consistently identified Troy Kotsur for CODA as the likely winner. His heartwarming and deeply authentic performance as Frank Rossi, the deaf fisherman and father, resonated profoundly with audiences and voters. THR highlighted his groundbreaking win at the SAG Awards, making him the first deaf actor to win an individual SAG award, which was a clear indicator of strong industry support. They emphasized the emotional core he brought to the film and the historic nature of his potential Oscar win, making him a compelling and widely celebrated frontrunner.

While Kotsur was the favorite, The Hollywood Reporter also acknowledged the strong competition. Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog was a prominent contender, praised for his subtle yet impactful performance. THR recognized his critical acclaim and the film’s overall strength, positioning him as Kotsur’s strongest challenger. Jesse Plemons, also from The Power of the Dog, was nominated for his equally compelling work, underscoring the film’s acting prowess. Ciarán Hinds for Belfast garnered significant appreciation for his charming and poignant portrayal of the grandfather, with THR noting his strong critical reception. Finally, J.K. Simmons for Being the Ricardos was another seasoned actor delivering a memorable performance. The Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 correctly anticipated Kotsur’s historic victory, celebrating a performance that transcended mere acting to deliver a powerful message of inclusion and family.

Best Supporting Actress: A Dynamic and Energetic Win

The Best Supporting Actress category, as predicted by The Hollywood Reporter for the Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022, also had a very clear frontrunner: Ariana DeBose for her dazzling performance as Anita in West Side Story. THR’s analysis consistently placed her at the top of their list, noting her vibrant energy, powerful vocals, and mesmerizing dance sequences that paid homage to Rita Moreno’s iconic original performance while making the role her own. Her clean sweep of precursor awards (Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice) made her an undeniable lock for the Oscar, as THR thoroughly documented. They emphasized her magnetic screen presence and the sheer joy she brought to the role, which made her a standout in an already strong film.

Despite DeBose’s dominance, The Hollywood Reporter also provided insightful coverage of the other nominees. Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog was a strong contender, lauded for her sensitive and vulnerable portrayal of a woman struggling with isolation. THR highlighted her nuanced performance in a critically acclaimed film. Aunjanue Ellis for King Richard also received high praise for her strong and supportive role as Oracene ‘Brandy’ Williams, bringing warmth and backbone to the family drama. Judi Dench for Belfast was recognized for her beloved performance as the grandmother, adding heart and humor to the film. Finally, Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter impressed with her intense and memorable turn. The Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 for Best Supporting Actress accurately foretold DeBose’s exhilarating win, celebrating a performance that was both a tribute and a fresh interpretation of a classic role.

Screenwriting Masterclasses: Original and Adapted Scenarios

Screenwriting is the backbone of any great film, and The Hollywood Reporter’s analysis for the Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 delved deep into both the Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay categories, identifying the narratives that resonated most with the Academy.

Best Original Screenplay: The Power of Personal Storytelling

For Best Original Screenplay, The Hollywood Reporter consistently favored Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast. THR highlighted the deeply personal nature of the script, drawing from Branagh’s own childhood experiences amidst the Troubles in Northern Ireland. They praised its ability to blend humor, heartbreak, and a coming-of-age narrative with historical context, creating a universally appealing yet intimately specific story. The film’s critical acclaim and its strong showing in early awards positioned it as a frontrunner in this category, with THR emphasizing its well-crafted dialogue and memorable characters.

Other strong contenders in THR’s forecasts included Adam McKay and David Sirota’s Don’t Look Up, recognized for its biting satire and timely commentary, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza, praised for its unique voice, evocative setting, and naturalistic dialogue. THR noted the distinctiveness of Anderson’s script and its ability to capture a specific era. Zach Baylin’s King Richard was also a strong presence, celebrated for its inspiring true story and compelling character development. Finally, Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt’s The Worst Person in the World made a significant impact as an international entry, earning high marks from THR for its insightful and modern exploration of identity and relationships. The Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 ultimately pointed towards Belfast for its heartfelt and meticulously crafted narrative.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nuance and Transformation

In the Best Adapted Screenplay category, The Hollywood Reporter’s Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 focused on scripts that masterfully translated existing material into compelling cinematic experiences. The race was highly competitive, but THR eventually saw Sian Heder’s CODA as the likely winner. They highlighted Heder’s skillful adaptation of the French film La Famille Bélier, noting how she Americanized the story and added layers of authenticity, particularly concerning deaf culture and ASL. THR praised the script’s emotional depth, its balance of humor and drama, and its ability to connect with a broad audience, securing its status as a powerful contender, especially after its WGA win.

Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, adapted from Thomas Savage’s novel, was also a formidable presence in THR’s forecasts. They lauded Campion’s ability to capture the novel’s complex psychological tension and nuanced character dynamics, creating a rich and unsettling narrative. Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts, and Eric Roth’s Dune was recognized for the monumental task of adapting Frank Herbert’s epic sci-fi novel, with THR noting the impressive world-building and narrative condensation. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter, adapted from Elena Ferrante’s novel, also earned high praise from THR for its intricate psychological exploration and strong female voice. Lastly, Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe’s Drive My Car, based on a Haruki Murakami short story, was celebrated for its meditative quality and profound character studies. The Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 for Adapted Screenplay underscored the power of strong adaptation in bringing diverse stories to the screen, with CODA ultimately triumphing for its resonant and moving transformation.

Other Key Categories: Animation, International, and Documentaries

Beyond the major categories, The Hollywood Reporter’s Oscar predictions 2022 extended to specialized fields, providing invaluable insights into animated features, international films, and documentaries. For Best Animated Feature, THR consistently identified Encanto as the strong favorite. Its vibrant animation, catchy songs, and compelling story about family and self-acceptance, coupled with Disney’s robust campaign, made it a clear frontrunner. They also gave significant attention to Flee and The Mitchells vs. the Machines, recognizing their critical acclaim and innovative storytelling, but Encanto’s widespread appeal proved insurmountable.

In the Best International Feature Film category, The Hollywood Reporter heavily favored Ryûsuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car from Japan. Its critical accolades, multiple nominations (including Best Picture and Director), and profound narrative depth made it an undeniable force. THR highlighted its strong reception at festivals and its ability to connect with audiences globally, making it a standout choice. Other strong contenders like The Worst Person in the World (Norway) and Flee (Denmark) were also closely tracked, showcasing the diversity and strength of global cinema.

For Best Documentary Feature, The Hollywood Reporter’s predictions often involved a deeper dive into the emotional and historical impact of the films. Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) emerged as the consistent frontrunner. THR praised Questlove’s directorial debut for its vibrant historical significance, its celebratory yet poignant exploration of the Harlem Cultural Festival, and its universal appeal. They noted its powerful blend of music, history, and social commentary, making it a powerful and timely contender. Films like Flee and Ascension also received significant attention for their unique narratives and critical praise. Across these categories, The Hollywood Reporter’s detailed analysis provided clarity in often unpredictable races, guiding readers through the nuances of specialized film achievements.

The Verdict: How Accurate Were THR’s 2022 Predictions?

Reflecting on The Hollywood Reporter’s Oscar predictions for 2022, it’s clear that their team of prognosticators demonstrated remarkable accuracy across many key categories, while also navigating the inherent unpredictability of the Academy Awards. Their consistent identification of CODA as a late-breaking Best Picture contender, successfully shifting from the long-held favorite The Power of the Dog, was a notable triumph. This pivot showcased their astute reading of precursor awards (SAG, PGA) and the Academy’s capacity for emotional, feel-good narratives, proving their ability to adapt to changing dynamics.

In the directorial race, Jane Campion’s win for The Power of the Dog was a near-certainty in THR’s forecasts from early on, a testament to their accurate assessment of critical consensus and historical context. Similarly, their predictions for the lead acting categories were largely spot-on. Will Smith for Best Actor was consistently positioned as the dominant frontrunner, and his eventual win for King Richard was widely expected according to THR. In the more volatile Best Actress race, The Hollywood Reporter accurately tracked the late surge of Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, recognizing her strong campaign and impactful performance as critical factors for her victory. The supporting categories also saw high accuracy, with Troy Kotsur for Best Supporting Actor and Ariana DeBose for Best Supporting Actress both identified as strong favorites who went on to win, highlighting the predictive power of precursor awards that THR meticulously monitors.

For screenwriting, their lean towards CODA for Best Adapted Screenplay and Belfast for Best Original Screenplay also proved correct, demonstrating their understanding of the Academy’s appreciation for well-crafted and resonant narratives. Even in specialized categories like Best Animated Feature (Encanto), Best International Feature (Drive My Car), and Best Documentary Feature (Summer of Soul), The Hollywood Reporter’s predictions were largely accurate. While no prognosticator can achieve 100% accuracy in the complex world of Oscar voting, The Hollywood Reporter’s 2022 forecasts underscored their deep industry knowledge, their ability to interpret industry buzz, and their skill in identifying trends that ultimately shaped the outcomes of the 94th Academy Awards. Their performance in 2022 reaffirmed their status as one of the most reliable and insightful sources for Oscar predictions, providing valuable guidance through a truly exciting awards season.

Conclusion: The Enduring Value of THR’s Oscar Insights

The 94th Academy Awards proved to be a compelling and memorable ceremony, marked by both expected triumphs and a few surprising moments that kept audiences engaged. Throughout the arduous awards season, The Hollywood Reporter’s comprehensive and insightful Hollywood Reporter Oscar predictions 2022 served as an indispensable guide for anyone following the race. Their detailed analysis, grounded in a deep understanding of industry dynamics, voter psychology, and cinematic merit, consistently highlighted the films and performances that resonated most deeply with the Academy.

From the critical evaluation of Best Picture contenders like The Power of the Dog and the timely recognition of CODA’s surging momentum, to the confident calls in the acting categories for Will Smith, Jessica Chastain, Troy Kotsur, and Ariana DeBose, THR’s prognosticators demonstrated remarkable precision. Their ability to dissect the nuances of each category, consider the impact of precursor awards, and adapt their forecasts as the season progressed solidified their reputation as a leading authority in Oscar prognostication. The success of their 2022 predictions not only entertained and informed but also reaffirmed the significant influence The Hollywood Reporter wields in shaping the narrative of Hollywood’s biggest night. As the film industry continues to evolve, the value of such expert analysis remains paramount, providing clarity and context to the celebration of cinematic excellence.