Analysis of Factors Affecting Foreign Debt and Its Impact on Indonesian Economic Growth

Oct 13, 2025 by miodeya.com 68 views

Analysis of Factors Affecting Foreign Debt and Its Impact on Indonesian Economic Growth

Introduction

Foreign debt has become a significant concern for many countries, including Indonesia, as it can have a substantial impact on a nation's economic growth. The accumulation of foreign debt can lead to a decrease in economic growth, making it challenging for a country to achieve sustainable and stable economic development. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the factors that influence foreign debt and its impact on Indonesia's economic growth.

Background

Indonesia, as a developing country, has been experiencing rapid economic growth in recent years. However, the country's economic growth is heavily reliant on foreign investment, which can lead to an increase in foreign debt. The government's budget deficit has also been a concern, as it can lead to an increase in foreign debt. Domestic savings and exports are also crucial factors that can influence foreign debt and economic growth.

Methodology

This study uses secondary data in the form of time series data for 16 years, from 2001 to 2016. The method used for analysis is multiple linear regression with a path analysis approach using SPSS and EViews software. The study aims to analyze the effect of various factors, such as foreign investment, budget deficit, domestic savings, and exports, on foreign debt and Indonesia's economic growth, measured through Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Results

The results of the study show that foreign investment, budget deficit, domestic savings, and exports have a significant influence on foreign debt. Foreign investment, budget deficit, and domestic savings show positive influence, while exports have a negative influence on foreign debt.

Impact of Factors on Economic Growth

Directly, foreign investment, budget deficit, domestic savings, and exports affect Indonesia's economic growth (GDP). However, among these factors, only domestic savings have a significant influence on economic growth, while foreign investment, budget deficit, and exports do not show a significant effect.

In an indirect aspect, when analyzed through foreign debt, the results are different. Foreign investment, budget deficit, and domestic savings each have a negative effect on GDP, while exports actually have a positive impact. This shows that although foreign investment and budget deficits can help increase investment and spur growth, both can also cause an increase in foreign debt which in turn can reduce economic growth.

The Implications of the Research Results

From the results of this study, there are several implications that can be taken for Indonesia's economic policy. First, the government must use foreign investment wisely to ensure that incoming capital can be used to increase productivity and competitiveness without increasing the burden of excessive foreign debt. Second, budget deficit management needs to be increased to avoid increasing uncontrolled debt. In addition, efforts to increase domestic savings must be a focus, because this is proven to have a significant positive impact on economic growth.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of understanding the factors that influence foreign debt and its impact on Indonesia's economic growth. The results of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers to develop more integrated policies that can achieve sustainable and stable economic growth in Indonesia. By understanding the relationship between these factors, it is hoped that more effective policies can be applied to maintain economic competitiveness in the long run.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations are made:

Foreign Investment: The government must use foreign investment wisely to ensure that incoming capital can be used to increase productivity and competitiveness without increasing the burden of excessive foreign debt.
Budget Deficit Management: Budget deficit management needs to be increased to avoid increasing uncontrolled debt.
Domestic Savings: Efforts to increase domestic savings must be a focus, because this is proven to have a significant positive impact on economic growth.
Exports: Exports should be encouraged to increase, as they have a positive impact on economic growth.

Limitations of the Study

This study has several limitations. First, the study uses secondary data, which may not be comprehensive or up-to-date. Second, the study only analyzes the factors that influence foreign debt and its impact on Indonesia's economic growth, and does not consider other factors that may influence economic growth. Third, the study uses a multiple linear regression model, which may not be the most appropriate model for analyzing the relationship between foreign debt and economic growth.

Future Research Directions

Future research should focus on addressing the limitations of this study. First, primary data should be collected to provide more comprehensive and up-to-date information. Second, other factors that may influence economic growth should be considered. Third, more advanced models, such as vector autoregression (VAR) or structural vector autoregression (SVAR), should be used to analyze the relationship between foreign debt and economic growth.

References

[1] World Bank. (2020). World Development Indicators.
[2] International Monetary Fund. (2020). World Economic Outlook.
[3] Bank Indonesia. (2020). Annual Report.
[4] Ministry of Finance. (2020). Budget Report.

Appendices

[1] Data Description
[2] Methodology
[3] Results
[4] Discussion
[5] Conclusion
Q&A: Analysis of Factors Affecting Foreign Debt and Its Impact on Indonesian Economic Growth

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What is the main objective of this study?

A1: The main objective of this study is to analyze the effect of various factors, such as foreign investment, budget deficit, domestic savings, and exports, on foreign debt and Indonesia's economic growth, measured through Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Q2: What are the key findings of this study?

A2: The key findings of this study are that foreign investment, budget deficit, domestic savings, and exports have a significant influence on foreign debt. Foreign investment, budget deficit, and domestic savings show positive influence, while exports have a negative influence on foreign debt.

Q3: How does foreign investment affect foreign debt and economic growth?

A3: Foreign investment has a positive influence on foreign debt, but it also has a negative effect on economic growth when analyzed through foreign debt. This means that although foreign investment can help increase investment and spur growth, it can also cause an increase in foreign debt which in turn can reduce economic growth.

Q4: What is the impact of budget deficit on foreign debt and economic growth?

A4: Budget deficit has a positive influence on foreign debt, but it also has a negative effect on economic growth when analyzed through foreign debt. This means that although budget deficits can help increase investment and spur growth, they can also cause an increase in foreign debt which in turn can reduce economic growth.

Q5: How does domestic savings affect foreign debt and economic growth?

A5: Domestic savings have a positive influence on foreign debt and economic growth. This means that increasing domestic savings can help reduce foreign debt and increase economic growth.

Q6: What is the impact of exports on foreign debt and economic growth?

A6: Exports have a negative influence on foreign debt, but they have a positive effect on economic growth when analyzed through foreign debt. This means that increasing exports can help reduce foreign debt and increase economic growth.

Q7: What are the implications of this study for Indonesia's economic policy?

A7: The implications of this study are that the government must use foreign investment wisely to ensure that incoming capital can be used to increase productivity and competitiveness without increasing the burden of excessive foreign debt. Budget deficit management needs to be increased to avoid increasing uncontrolled debt. In addition, efforts to increase domestic savings must be a focus, because this is proven to have a significant positive impact on economic growth.

Q8: What are the limitations of this study?

A8: The limitations of this study are that it uses secondary data, which may not be comprehensive or up-to-date. The study only analyzes the factors that influence foreign debt and its impact on Indonesia's economic growth, and does not consider other factors that may influence economic growth. The study uses a multiple linear regression model, which may not be the most appropriate model for analyzing the relationship between foreign debt and economic growth.

Q9: What are the future research directions?

A9: Future research should focus on addressing the limitations of this study. Primary data should be collected to provide more comprehensive and up-to-date information. Other factors that may influence economic growth should be considered. More advanced models, such as vector autoregression (VAR) or structural vector autoregression (SVAR), should be used to analyze the relationship between foreign debt and economic growth.

Q10: What are the practical implications of this study?

A10: The practical implications of this study are that policymakers should consider the impact of foreign debt on economic growth when making decisions about foreign investment, budget deficits, domestic savings, and exports. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers to develop more integrated policies that can achieve sustainable and stable economic growth in Indonesia.